Não obstante o processo de globalização, o Estado Nacional, para países dotados de satisfatória condição de autonomia, continua sendo o agente decisório. Integrações regionais, como as da União Européia e do Mercosul , tornaram-se necessárias condições de sustentação dessa autonomia.

In spite of the globalization process, the National State still represents the deciding agent in countries with satisfactory autonomy conditions. Regional integrations such as European Union and Mercosur have become necessary conditions to sustain this autonomy.

This paper analyses the international scene in the XX1st century by taking into account three major issues: first, the new world order; second, the relationship between technological advances and the humanist conception; third, the search for a solution for the increasing differences between affluent and marginal societies, and, within them, extremely rich and extremely poor sectors. In this context, the opportunities Argentinaand Brazilhave within Mercosur and the South American Community of Nations are also highlighted.

This brief endeavor to appraise the contemporary world's and Brazil's most likely macrotrends at the run of the century starts with some considerations on the problems of predictability and the possibilities for arriving at a forecast endowed with a reasonable capacity to shed light on the most likely future scenarios. The next section analyses how the world's political picture will probably look at the turn of the century, with special note made of China's emergence as superpower. The article concludes with an analysis of Brazilian alternatives at the dawn of the new century, depending upon whether Fernando Henrique Cardoso is re-elected or candidates such as Lula or Maluf end up in front

Cette étude cherche à estimer quelles seront les macrotendances du monde contemporain et celles du Brésil, à l'horizon du nouveau siècle. Tout d'abord on présente quelques considérations sur la question de la prévisibilité et des possibilités d'une vue prospective relativement capable d'avancer des hypothèses pour l'avenir. Ensuite on analyse le profil probable du cadre mondial politique au tournant du siècle, en soulignant l'émergence de la Chine comme super-puissance. Enfin on examine les possibles situations pour le Brésil au XXI siècle, selon qu'on soit confronté à la réélection de Fernando Henrique Cardoso ou qu'on ait l'alternative d'autres noms à la succession présidentielle, tels que ceux de Lula ou Maluf